The September 2024 Visa Bulletin delivered the news many had anticipated but hoped to avoid—a significant retrogression in priority dates. After months of gradual slowdown, we finally witnessed the retrogression we’d been bracing for. The shift wasn’t just a small step back – it was a full-year leap in some categories. This regression signals a new phase in the Visa Bulletin cycle, raising questions about what lies ahead.
The September bulletin’s most notable impact was on Employment-Based Final Action Dates. While this news was concerning, the setbacks were not uniform across all categories. Regardless, the size of some of these shifts has us all on edge about what’s coming next.
Over the past year, we’ve watched the USCIS move from positive shifts to stagnation, and now to retrogression. It’s been a bit like watching a rollercoaster in slow motion – we knew the drop was coming, but it didn’t make it any less nerve-wracking when it arrived
What Led Us to These Priority Dates?
The slow decline from positive movement to stagnation over the last few months was not unexpected. Demand for visas has been high, and the USCIS has had to strike a delicate balance between its capacity to process applications and the ever-growing backlog. Earlier in the year, we saw a period of cautious optimism as priority dates inched forward. However, it became increasingly clear that these positive trends could not be sustained indefinitely.
The USCIS appears to be taking a measured approach to this retrogression, pulling back in a way that allows applicants and their representatives to adjust without being blindsided. This careful management suggests that the agency is aiming to avoid sudden, across-the-board setbacks, which could create chaos in an already complex system.
Predictions for the October 2024 Visa Bulletin
As we look ahead to the October 2024 Visa Bulletin, the likelihood of further negative shifts seems high. The retrogression we saw in September could be the beginning of a broader trend as the USCIS grapples with balancing high demand against limited processing capacity. It’s reasonable to expect that more Employment-Based categories will see further retrogression, though the scope of these changes will depend on how the USCIS manages its resources and whether any relief comes in the form of increased visa numbers or processing efficiencies.
In the Family-Based categories, there has been more stability, but this could change if the USCIS shifts its focus to managing overall visa demand. For now, we remain cautiously optimistic that any changes here will be more gradual, but applicants should be prepared for potential delays in their timelines.
The best-case scenario for the October bulletin would be a continuation of the USCIS’s careful approach, with any negative shifts being moderate and confined to specific categories. However, with the increased pressure on visa numbers, it’s also possible that we could see more widespread retrogression as the agency tries to keep pace with demand.
October 2024 Visa Bulletin Release Date
Based on recent trends, we expect the October 2024 Visa Bulletin to be released anywhere between September 9, 2024, and September 13, 2024.
Check back as soon as the bulletin is released for our complete breakdown of priority date changes and updates.
Additional Visa Bulletin Resources
Here are some additional resources that can help you navigate the visa bulletin and green card process.
