The day we’ve been fearing has finally arrived. The September 2024 Visa Bulletin marks a significant shift, with retrogression now officially impacting priority dates. Over the past few months, we’ve observed a slow descent from positive shifts to stagnation in the Visa Bulletin, and it was only a matter of time before we saw the first negative shift. While the last few announcements hinted at this possibility with small negative adjustments, the September bulletin brings us a retrogression as sizable as a whole year.
The news is not all bad, as the negative shifts were confined to a few categories in the Employment-Based Final Action Dates. While this is somewhat of a relief, the magnitude of these shifts leaves us concerned about what this could mean for future announcements.
We’ll explore these implications in a moment, but first, let’s take a closer look at the results of the September 2024 Visa Bulletin.
September 2024 Visa Bulletin Results
Here are the results of the September 2024 Visa Bulletin and the priority date changes for both family and employment-based categories.
Family-based
Final Action Date
- No Change
Date of Filing Application
- No Change
Employment-based
Final Action Date
- EB3 All Other Chargeable Areas – December 1, 2021 to December 1, 2020 – 1 year
- EB3 Mexico – December 1, 2021 to December 1, 2020 – 1 year
- EB3 Philippines – December 1, 2021 to December 1, 2020 – 1 year
- EB Other Workers All Other Chargeable Areas – January 1, 2021 to December 1, 2020 – 1 month
- EB Other Workers Mexico – December 1, 2021 to December 1, 2020 – 1 year
Date of Filing Application
- No Change
A Slow Descent from Positivity to Stagnation
In previous Visa Bulletin announcements, we observed that the USCIS transitioned from positive shifts to stagnation in priority dates over several months. This shift wasn’t abrupt; it was slow and deliberate, giving applicants time to adjust. However, as we moved through the year, the concern grew that with only a few announcements left, the USCIS might suddenly shift from stagnation to negative shifts. The past two bulletin announcements have shown that this transition, much like the shift from positivity to stagnation, is being handled with caution.
The USCIS seems to be applying a methodical approach, carefully balancing their capacity against the demand for visas. The gradual nature of this transition is a clear indicator that the positive shifts we saw earlier in the year were not sustainable in the long term. As demand has likely outpaced supply, the USCIS is pulling back in a controlled manner. We hope that this measured approach continues, avoiding any sudden, across-the-board retrogressions. The slow release of negative shifts allows both applicants and immigration professionals time to adjust and strategize accordingly.
October 2024 Visa Bulletin Predictions
Looking ahead to the October 2024 Visa Bulletin, it’s evident that the USCIS is committed to managing the descent into negative shifts with the same care they applied to the earlier phases of the year. As they work to balance the positive shifts that we saw earlier in the year with their current processing capacity and the demand, we should be prepared for more negative shifts in priority dates. Although the September bulletin did not show negative shifts across the board, we must remain cautious and ready for that possibility next month.
As always, we advise our readers to stay informed by following Path2USA’s updates. Keep an eye out for our detailed predictions for the October 2024 Visa Bulletin, where we’ll continue to analyze these trends and provide insights to help you navigate the immigration process during these uncertain times.
See the U.S. Department of State website to view the September 2024 Visa Bulletin.
