With the effect of COVID-19 still very much prevalent when it comes to green card delays, many applicants are patiently waiting for the release of each month’s visa bulletin to determine if their priority date is on the horizon. With only small movements over the last few months, it may leave you wondering whether a big jump, or possibly a retrogression, is due soon.
EB2 and EB3 Categories
At this time, EB2 is ahead of EB3 in terms of movement; EB3 seems to be at an endless standstill. However, many visa bulletin analysts are weary that an EB2 retrogression is to be expected by Sept 2022. EB3 is expected not to reach Jan 2014 by this FY 2022.
USCIS previously recommended an adjustment of status for eligible individuals, which means that if those originally filed under EB3 have received green cards after switching to EB2, EB3 could make a significant jump. This might not be seen until FY 2023, however, as USCIS works through the current backlog of those stuck in EB3 who were unable to interfile back to EB2 for various reasons.
June 2022 Visa Bulletin Predictions
For our June 2022 visa bulletin predictions, we don’t expect to see much movement for most categories. The category we will be looking at closely is the Date for Filing Applications for EB2 India – we are predicting that this will likely advance to March 2015. We don’t expect the Final Action Date to move much – for India EB2, we may see a small advance to December 2013. However, with the absence of USCIS alerts urging applicants to interfile using EB2, significant movement will be unlikely.
USCIS Processing Backlog Crisis
Overall, it does seem that the USCIS visa bulletins are becoming harder to predict. With the massive backlog and COVID-19 still impacting embassies and consulates abroad, the ability to process visas in a timely manner has been nearly impossible. In April 2022, the USCIS released the following data regarding the current backlog of visas:
Number of IV applicants whose cases are documentarily complete at NVC and ready for interview as of March 31
Number of documentarily complete IV applicants scheduled for April 2022 interview appointments
Number of eligible IV applicants still pending the scheduling of an interview after April 2022 appointment scheduling was completed
The USCIS noted that in 2019, the average of applicants pending the schedule of an interview each month was 60,866, which is a drastic difference from the current number of 421,358 – it’s almost a 7x multiple.
Even with the USCIS announcing plans to speed up visa processing, the future of timelines for applicants patiently waiting is unclear.
Stay Up-to-Date with the Latest June 2022 Visa Bulletin Discussions
If you’re looking for the latest discussion on what others are expecting for the June Visa Bulletin 2022 or if you need advice for your individual situation or priority date, we invite you to visit Trackitt’s June 2022 Visa Bulletin Predictions forum. Be sure to also check out our updated article about how to read and comprehend visa bulletins.
If you’re looking for our analysis of the May 2022 Visa Bulletin results, click here. Check back regularly, as we will be updating our analysis as more data is released.