In a surprising turn of events, the October 2024 Visa Bulletin brought good news with it. After the past couple months spent in stagnancy and some negative shifts, we did not predict to see so many positive shifts in the October 2024 Visa Bulletin. We had predicted that the USCIS was trying to recuperate from their slew of positive shifts in the earlier half of the year and the visa bulletins for the rest of the year would reflect no changes in dates and even some negative shifts. But it seems that the USCIS took some steps backwards to propel themselves forward.
The October 2024 Visa Bulletin saw positive shifts in categories that saw negative shifts last month, making this announcement needed news for those who found themselves just on the edge of priority dates last month. In the past few months, we have still seen some positive shifts but they were so minor, most of us didn’t bat an eye. Not only did this month bounce back from stagnant and negative shifts, but this month’s shifts were no small feat. There were sizable shifts this month almost as large as 2 years, showing some of the largest shifts we have seen in months. We’ll explore what this means and how to prepare for future announcements soon but first, let’s take a closer look at the October 2024 Visa Bulletin Results.
October 2024 Visa Bulletin Results
Here are the results of the October 2024 Visa Bulletin and the priority date changes for both family and employment-based categories.
Family-based
Final Action Date
- F1 Mexico – May 8, 2002 to January 1, 2003 + 7 months & 24 days
- F2A All Other Chargeable Areas – November 15, 2021 to November 22, 2021 +7 days
- F2A China – November 15, 2021 to November 22, 2021 + 7 days
- F2A India – November 15, 2021 to November 22, 2021 + 7 days
- F2A Mexico – February 1, 2021 to March 8, 2021 + 1 month & 7 days
- F2A Philippines – November 15, 2021 to November 22, 2021 + 7 days
- F2B Mexico – July 15, 2004 to January 15, 2005 + 6 months
- F3 Mexico – March 1, 2000 to August 22, 2000 + 4 months
- F4 India – January 22, 2006 to March 1, 2006 + 1 month & 7 days
Date of Filing Application
- F1 Mexico – April 1, 2005 to October 1, 2005 + 6 months
- F2A All Other Chargeable Areas – June 15, 2024 to July 15, 2024 + 1 month
- F2A China – June 15, 2024 to July 15, 2024 + 1 month
- F2A India – June 15, 2024 to July 15, 2024 + 1 month
- F2A Mexico – June 15, 2024 to July 15, 2024 + 1 month
- F2A Philippines – June 15, 2024 to July 15, 2024 + 1 month
- F2B Mexico – May 1, 2005 to August 1, 2005 + 3 months
- F3 All Other Chargeable Areas – January 1, 2011 to July 1, 2011 + 6 months
- F3 China – January 1, 2011 to July 1, 2011 + 6 months
- F3 India – January 1, 2011 to July 1, 2011 + 6 months
- F3 Philippines – November 8, 2003 to May 8, 2004 + 6 months
- F4 Philippines – April 1, 2006 to August 1, 2006 + 4 months
Employment-based
Final Action Date
- EB2 China – March 1, 2020 to March 22, 2020 + 21 days
- EB3 All Other Chargeable Areas – December 1, 2021 to November 15, 2022 + 11 months & 14 days
- EB3 China – September 1, 2020 to April 1, 2020 – 5 months
- EB3 India – October 22, 2012 to November 1, 2012 + 10 days
- EB3 Mexico – December 1, 2020 to November 15, 2022 + 1 year, 11 months, & 14 days
- EB3 Philippines – December 1, 2020 to November 15, 2022 + 1 year, 11 months, & 14 days
- Other Workers India – October 22, 2012 to November 1, 2012 + 10 days
- Other Workers Philippines – May 1, 2020 to December 1, 2020 + 7 months
- EB5 China – December 15, 2015 to July 15, 2016 + 7 months
- EB5 India – December 1, 2020 to January 1, 2022 + 1 year & 1 month
*Note: Certain Religious Workers has been unlisted and is no longer served
Date of Filing Application
- EB1 India – February 8, 2022 to April 15, 2022 + 2 months & 7 days
- EB2 All Other Chargeable Areas – March 22, 2023 to August 1, 2023 + 4 months & 10 days
- EB2 China – June 1, 2020 to October 1, 2020 + 4 months
- EB2 India – July 22, 2012 to January 1, 2013 + 5 months & 10 days
- EB2 Mexico – March 22, 2023 to August 1, 2023 + 4 months & 10 days
- EB2 Philippines – March 22, 2023 to August 1, 2023 + 4 months & 10 days
- EB3 All Other Chargeable Areas – February 1, 2023 to March 1, 2023 + 1 month
- EB3 China – July 1, 2021 to November 15, 2020 – 7 months & 16 days
- EB3 India – November 1, 2012 to June 8, 2013 + 7 months & 7 days
- EB3 Mexico – February 1, 2023 to March 1, 2023 + 1 month
- EB3 Philippines – January 1, 2023 to March 1, 2023 + 2 months
- EB5 China – January 1, 2017 to October 1, 2016 – 3 months
The Certain Religious Workers Category
One noticeable detail in this month’s Visa Bulletin is the absence of the “Certain Religious Workers” category from the Employment-Based Final Action Dates. This category has been unpredictable in recent years, toggling between availability and unavailability. While it is marked as unavailable in October 2024, this isn’t necessarily a permanent change. Based on previous trends, it’s worth keeping an eye on future bulletins to see if it will be reinstated, as it has been in the past.
Analysis of the October 2024 Visa Bulletin
In previous visa bulletin announcements, we noticed a pattern: the USCIS was slowly moving from positive shifts to stagnancy in priority dates over the span of a few visa bulletins. This shift wasn’t abrupt; it was slow and deliberate, gradually transitioning from positive shifts across the board to stagnancy in priority dates. We had even begun to see negative shifts in some dates.
That’s why this month’s bulletin came as such a surprise. It took a large leap forward, showing many positive shifts in priority dates. This unexpected move raises some questions: Should we worry that this month was just a one-time thing? Did the USCIS feel that they pulled too far back and made a one-time exception to the priority dates, pushing them forward only to continue stagnancy in the coming months?
We need to approach this with caution. While the positive shifts are great news for many applicants, this month may have been an anomaly rather than the start of a new trend. The USCIS is constantly balancing demand and capacity, which explains the slowdown in priority dates during months with high visa demands in other categories.
When the USCIS typically makes such slow and careful shifts, a sudden large positive movement like this is unusual. We certainly hope that future announcements will bring changes just like this one, if not even more positive. However, it wouldn’t be wise to assume that next month’s announcement will follow this pattern.
November 2024 Visa Bulletin Predictions
Looking ahead, it’s important to remain grounded in what we’ve seen so far this year. Up until now, the USCIS has been slowly descending into negative shifts to adjust for the significant positive movements we saw at the beginning of the year. They’ve been recalibrating to manage processing capacity and visa demand more effectively. For several months now, we’ve been preparing for more negative shifts, and while October 2024 surprised us with substantial positive changes, the trend is still uncertain.
That said, some employment-based categories have been consistently showing positive or stagnant movements, which gives us some hope that we could see more positive changes or at least stability in those areas moving forward. However, we must also be prepared for the possibility that October was a one-time exception, and the November 2024 Visa Bulletin may continue the pattern of negative shifts we’ve seen earlier in the year.
See the U.S. Department of State website to view the October 2024 Visa Bulletin.
