In the July 2023 Visa Bulletin, India’s employment-based third preference saw a significant retrogression in the Final Action Date of 3 years, 5 months, and 14 days, bringing the new Final Action Date to January 1, 2009. While the U.S. Department of State did warn about a retrogression in previous Visa Bulletins, the sheer size of the retrogression was shocking to those applying in the EB3 category under India.
On June 26, 2023, The U.S. Department of State released a notice to provide further explanation as to why the third employment-based preference for India retrogressed by over 3 years in July’s Visa Bulletin.
Why Did India EB3 Retrogress Substantially in July 2023?
The U.S. Department of State explained that when setting a Final Action Date in the Visa Bulletin, they look at the demand for visas within the category and compare it to how many visas remain for that country for the remainder of the current fiscal year. If the demand for the visas within that category exceeds the number of available visas for that fiscal year, the Final Action Date established will be the priority date of the first applicant for which a visa cannot be issued. In other words, the priority date on the application of the first applicant for which there is no visa available for the current fiscal year is the date chosen for the Final Action Date on the Visa Bulletin.
As of now, the demand for EB3 in India far exceeds the number of visas available per the 7% per-country limit permitted by law. It is estimated that by July 1, 2023, all EB3 visa numbers will be used for India for fiscal year 2023. That means there will not be any more EB3 visas available for India for the rest of the fiscal year. The U.S. Department of State also notes that because of high demand worldwide for EB3, there will not be any additional unused EB3 visas allocated to India for FY2023.
When Will the Final Action Date for India EB3 Advance or Return to Normal?
The annual limit for all visa numbers will reset at the start of the next fiscal year, 2024, on October 1, 2023. The India EB3 Final Action Date will advance then, once annual limits are reset. However, movement throughout the next fiscal year will depend upon demand, the annual limit, and more. Keep in mind that the annual limit for employment-based visas is currently projected to be substantially lower in FY2024 than in FY2023.
What Can We Expect in the August 2023 Visa Bulletin?
Since the U.S. Department of State reports that all India EB3 visa numbers will be used for FY2023 by July 1, 2023, we won’t expect to see any further retrogression in this category for the rest of the fiscal year.
Read our full predictions for other key categories in the upcoming August 2023 Visa Bulletin here.
